I’m actually really curious on a day time population study for 2016/17. There was one in 2012 by the NYU Wagner that studied just the Manhattan population which included residents, commuters, visitors, college students, people in hospitals, ect., and they found out that there are 4.1 million on any given weekday.
I’d imagine its much higher now. Although I still think the population for 2016 is closer to 9 million, because there are a lot of illegals. Anybody whos familiar with Queens apartments will tell you about the illegal units. There are 1000’s. A friend of mine is a drafter, and he regularly runs into them. OF course the ethical thing to do is to keep your mouth shut and not snitch. Can’t blame people though for living in them. Its expensive and hard if your an immigrant starting out.
Was not sure where to put this but thought it was best spot here.
Its seems the market is really strong still. It also mentioned one thing I suspected. People waiting to see what was built.
If I were loaded and in the market to buy one of this properties I would be sitting tight waiting to see all of the option before I dove in. I dont think we will really know where the market will settle until Central Park Tower is completed. I think once the biggest and grandest is built people will decided which is the best investment because even if you plan on occupying the place you still want to make sure the place you pay a crap ton for a view wont have a supertall built right in front of your window.
I think what is currently in the pipe will be built then in 2019 and 2020 developers will sit on project and see what happens when they all hit the market. The devs will see what sells in a competive marketplace and what does not. Wave 2 will happen if sales are swift during this time and the way wave 2 looks will be determined by which sites are most successful.
The time between wave 1 and wave 2 will be filled by devs playing catch up on the 1-3 million dollar range. I don’t see many of these becoming supertalls because the economics of 1-3m apartments don’t support it. Look to Barnett’s One Manhattan Square by the Manhattan bridge as an example of what this devs may look like. This time will also be filled by office towers and mixed use like we will see in Hudson PH2, Vandy 1, and WTC 2.
Interesting perspective hahaha. I see not much has changed in the skyscrapergame since then actually. Nor much has changed in the general dislike for Donald Trump
I think it was pretty spot on. The US moved past the tallest tower stage. The current boom is more about it making sense to build dense. If the US was determined to get back the tallest tower I am sure we could put one somewhere like Phoenix or Vegas where earthquake threats are lower, no hurricane threat, and not a ton of extreme weather in general.
For tall buildings extreme weather is not as much of an issue as Earthquakes. Regarding New York and hurricanes. I don’t believe a hurricane over category 4 or even 3 could ever hit New York as the water doesn’t get warm enough. Although it could cause damage I don’t think it is inconceivable for New York to get the tallest tower. It is more inconceivable for LA, San Fran or Seattle to get the tallest tower
If these Casinos get built right across the harbor from Manhattan it will alter the skyline and have long term implications on future developments. In my opinion these casinos would make bank and the lure for tourist being able to come gamble jump on a ferry(casino said there would be ferry service to and from NYC) and then check out the city while on their trip would be a big deal.
and its missing so much. Add in the stuff that is U/C and pretty sure thing proposals (like 1 Vandy or even Dime tower) to get a better idea.
I mean adding 30 Hudson, 1 Manhattan West, 55 Hudson, 15 Hudson, CPT, Steinway, 220 CP, 1 Manhattan Center (Barnets 2 bridges dev), 1 Hudson BLVD and probably a few I missed changes it all. All of those should be structurally complete in the next 18-24 months.
Some updated CTBUH lists. Just for construction / topped out.
This is almost like a whole Chicago Loop rising. When we add the proposals, most of which will rise between 2017 and 2022, it becomes apparent.
Just note that its not 100% complete or verbatim. Also some heights are off, but nevertheless, an idea.
These lists are for 100m and greater. So it doesn’t account for the 1000+ developments below that range. This included towers or midrises or lowrises between [10 - 99.99m]
I sorted out completed to get an idea of what is on the way.
The entire top 50 is over 203 meter, there are 31 800ft+ towers. This obviously does not capture what is going up in Jersey which obviously adds to the overall effect the city has.
20 of these are 300+ meters. Of those 20 only 1 I feel is a low chance of happening (15 Penn), and maybe 2 are a good ways off (which means to me they should be a “vision”) 666 5th and 145th 60th.
I think that 666 5th and 145 E 60th are more than visions. Vornado has not been renewing major leases, and instead, it has moved tenants to its other properties. Vornado recently renewed two small leases for only two years with the intention that in two years, demo will start. It will probably take at least another year to demolish the tower and several more to build it. Thus, while these units won’t come to the market for quite some time, the process is underway.
I agree re: 15 Penn. That area will need to improve a lot more before Vornado can induce companies to pay $125/sf in an area that’s currently the worst below 96th St.
ya I guess what I meant is they are so far out we don’t have a good feel for how they will pan out. The things about 15 Penn is that it is fully approved and it is on the site of a hotel they run so they could pretty much close up shop at the hotel and start demo quickly. I just don’t see it happening because of the reasons you stated. But like I said it is in a unique situation that if some tenant went to Vornado and said I want a building things would move very fast.
It definitely will happen eventually, but it could take 10 to 20 years. In time, that will be a prime site across from Penn. 10 to 15 years ago, the area by GCT was a dump. No one would have envisioned a building like One Vanderbilt.
